It's common to bet the public loves to play a favorite. It seems that the public has a point of view that says they bet on the better team when they add points with the "chalk". But is this really the way to go? I say "no" and I will tell you why.
First, let's look at this from a strict justification. If you know a favorite, three things can happen and two are not good. The favorite could miss the game straight up or your favorite could win the game, but no more points than you had to surrender. The only way you win is if your favorite wins the game with more points than you had to surrender. There are two possibilities that you lose your bet.
If you make a mistake, three things can happen and two of these things are beneficial. The underdog could win the game straight up or they could lose the game, but with fewer points than you get. Thus, there are two out of three possibilities that you will win your bet.
Two conditions are common in the football world. First, the favorite comes out and uses his opponent's will and is in great league. But in the NFL there are no pollsters to impress, so what is the favorite position to continue to score? The players do not care about the point spread. So often, "they let the gas" and the war to victory. Have you ever lost a bet with fear of "back cover"?
Second, the favorite looks flat, with lack of encouragement against what they perceive to be the inferior opponent. Perhaps the favorite is to win a lot of victory against the league competitor and has another rival on the deck. The underdog (players are almost always motivated in the dog role) comes out firing and taking early lead. Many times, your favorite will storm again and escape with work, but not cover.
I do not say you should only bet for dogs, but it seems to be a good idea to get back to the right situation instead of winning a favorite just because it seems to be a better team. Remember, a better team does not always work and sometimes it's the team that seems to be the better team.
Files may be deception. Team ABC could, for example, be 3-0, but they played three teams who have not won a game. Team XYZ could be 0-3, but they played three teams that have not lost a game. Do not get caught up in posts.
Statistics can also be deceiving. Team ABC can, for example, score 30 points per game while playing against defenders that allow 30 levels of play. Team XYZ can only score 20 points per game, but they played against more difficult defenses that allow only 20 points per game. Careful analysis is always required. Do not take statistics at nominal value.
Many times the numbers are broken or they are not as they appear to be. For example, Team ABC allowed 400 departures last week. But what is not shown on the page is that half of these meters were allowed in garbage teams after the team had risen by 28 in the fourth quarter. Again, a more detailed analysis is needed.
In short, you should not bet all the favorites or all the underworld. True job betting on primarily underdogs, as I mentioned before, in that case, two of three situations work in your favor. So while betting all undirdogs is not the way to bet riches, it's a good idea to look first at taking points.