Everyone loves trier, especially when it comes to putting down your reading. There is no more drawback for the punters than to realize that your choice was "not off" and that you have not even had a fair run for your money.
The coverage of television carpet and greater transparency in betting have raised awareness of the "non-trier" issue in horse games, but football fans need to be alert too. It is clear that everything is not good in the world of football, considering recent Germany's benchmark with judge Robert Hoyzer, continuing research on some Italian finals and irregular bets in pure Europe and international games.
Fortunately, the consistency of results in the larger departments (and especially in England) indicates that there is no reason for a lack of self-esteem. The main problem – like horse shows – lies around the periphery, in these games (or races) is not subject to full blur in the media and since skulduggery is less likely to suspect.
However, my research suggests that the non-trier case is a backward head at the end of the season, even in the main champions. Most rows are competitive enough to ensure that they are entitled to wires in battle in finals, places in Europe and safety from falling.
But inevitably, some items have nothing left to play in the last weeks of the season, which is where problems can arise.
The last weekend of the league season are three types of games:
1. Match between two teams with nothing to play for.
2. Comparison between two teams with something to play for.
3. Match between one team with something to play for and one team with nothing to play for.
The commitment of another team can not be taken as a matter of course in the first category so the most wise bet strategy at the end of the season is to focus on two and three classes.
Relevance in another category should be evaluated using standard methods. (Anyone who does not need to read our articles about football bet on inside-edge-mag.co.uk – Ed), but the best bet is often in category three, where there is always the possibility of being "non-trier".
This does not mean that something marvelous takes place in these games, only a slight drop in one-team focus can be important in a competition like the Premier League.
There may be many reasons for this fall in focus – including the broad view that some players are "on vacation" before the end of the season. It is equally likely that according to the requirements of modern football, a player who has been injured will be rested when his team has nothing left to play or it may be inactive for training. Why, our findings at the bottom of this article show team with something to play for is more likely to win a game against a team with nothing to play for.
Over the three English league and the major European League we identified (Spanish League, German Bundesliga and French Ligue 1), these matches usually produce 50-60% workforce for the team with something to play for and 20-30% work for the team with nothing to play for. The situation varies from year to year and league league, but generally consistent.
It's direct for some reason that such numbers provide reliable proof of non-trier, but it's one important thing that matters to me. If there were no links between the results and the urgent need of levels in one game in such games, we could expect a higher level of work among higher teams than those who are in difficulty at the bottom, as it has been happening during the rest of the season. Actually, the percentage of teams fighting against preventing disruption is abnormally high in such games at the end of the season – almost in line with the winning percentage achieved by teams at the top of the table that pursue titles, places in Europe  Fight to survive
For example, the last five seasons in the English Premiership have produced 55% winnings for teams with something to play for. This number does not vary, regardless of whether the team is in the top six or the bottom six.
It's a similar story in other divisions, although winning a percentage of defeated groups in such games tends to be slightly lower overall than what was achieved with teams at the top of the table.
So, do these numbers offer one good bet? The simple answer is no, but there are some cleaning products that can put these numbers for good.
Let's see the whole picture first. A 55% win rate would give a nice profit margin if average odds are available, but it is unlikely to be the case in games where one team has something to play for and the other team does not.
Taking the game It fell in this category last season in our games, a stadium bet on all teams with something to play for having had little loss. This was partly due to these teams last season than their average workout, but the most important factor is the less likely team members are asked to approve on such teams.
How to Predict
Literature is generally a participant in "nothing to play for" syndrome when pricing is completed on seasonal games, although some go through the internet. If you are good at creating your own book on games, you can find this match – otherwise you will have trouble making money in the pages of the teams with something to play for.
The counter argument, of course, is that the value lies in support for these sides, provided that a team with no play for the price available with artificial blow odds in such games. This does not hold water, though due to the lower working rate of these items. The problem for the punters, as described above, is to know if this team will try well enough – the evidence indicates that overall it will not be.
How can we break the odds? Well, a little more draws in statistics puts more emphasis on the general criteria that are often made about the final match.
From the beginning, the league championship championships are very official. There are clear indications that when a title has been secured by dividend, it is a great tendency for the champion to take his foot off the gas. Last season, for example, Spanish and German champions were confirmed by two games to play – Valencia and Werder Bremen, the respective winners, they immediately lost the last two games.
This is far from isolated examples. In 2001, Manchester United lost their last three games and hit the title, although it was said they had finished four straight wins when they were in the same position last season.
On the whole, however, it is estimated that when champions claim that they stop relaxing when the race is won. In the departments described above, the masters' working hours generally exceed 60%.
Once the title has been secured, it decreased by an average of 57% over the last five periods. And the fall is even more dramatic in games where they face something with something to play for. Their winning ratio is only 45%.
Tons of Profit
It is worth the contrast when crowned champions. Last season, in the departments shown here, this approach would have yielded 24% gains on income. If you've only focused on games where the opponent still has something to play for, the strike against opponents would be 100% and the gain by 125% to the level.
The only isolation must be careful about any factor that might cause the champions to continue the pressure. One example is Arsenal last season when they were top four championship champions but were pleased to maintain their unbeatable record. They did, but with only 50% victory over their last four games (two wins, two draws).
Another factor might be when the lower league side is tracking 100 points – it was the case with Wigan Athletic in the Old League two in 2003, when they scored three numbers with two wins and tie, although they were already champions.
Knowing that champions left off when they had nothing to play for, it's easy to assume that modern sides are going to be still dangerous. In contrast, reality is more complex.
Usually, in the departments identified here, the team has reached a 23% working rate when they are mathematically judged – fairly close to average. Expected from team members of the area during the period . In other words, they do not break apart when all hope is gone.
Indeed, team members have been incredibly good in the last few weeks of the season. On the average, they run a fairly even exchange of work, draw and lose at home, and in no faculties, the number of world championships is heavier than a total number of wins and drawers – as teams have always been worth looking at the Asian disability at home, as they will rarely , if ever, give up their opponents.
Since they work very badly at home. Even more prominent, they are usually lamb for slaughter (home or away) versus teams still having something to play for. Their team speed in such games is 70% and in the last five seasons there was no team in one victory in this type of fixtures in the top divisions in France, England and Germany.
A 70% drop rate equals the probability of their opponents being around 2/5 or 4/9 marks. The literature is cruel about such a team, although you could still win last season against team supporters in such games. With increased selectivity about the chances you're ready to take (not less than 1/2, say), there's a chance to make money on these games.
The central-of-the-board teams are area to work better. While the state controllers can generally count on side breaks for top positions or fight against dropout, this is not the case with marooned teams in the middle for the last few games of the season without incentives to go up and not fear
Final words ]
In the departments identified here, the average midweek gaming industry seems to be not bad at 33%, which is broadly consistent with its overall seasonal record.
The image is not so bright although the numbers are reduced to games against teams with something that's still playing. The working ratio of safe middle catches is 26% and their loss rate is up to 49% (from 41% overall).
Finally, the final period gives everything down to the chances that exist. Pricing for these games is difficult to work and it is impossible to quickly and quickly set rules on when to bet or what chance to accept. The gratitude of the underlying statistics is important, however, because games by the end of the year are not governed by the normal rules of the form and are laws in themselves in many cases. The only golden rule is: make sure you know your choices will be trying.
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