Betting odds, indirect resemblance and entering the end of the line

Using a random line at a casino in the Las Vegas Casino for the legendary Yankees / Royals game, we see New York at -220 and Kansas City at +206 and from these bets we can probably calculate the likelihood of each team having to win this particular game.

To calculate the potential to work for favorites (where the odds are negative), calculate the total price and probability of the probability and 100. For the New York Yankees, the probability of winning is: [19659002] 220 / (220 + 100) = 220/320 = 0.6875 = 68.75%

To calculate the probability of winning undirdog (where the odds are positive) the line plus 100. For the New York Yankees is likely to work:

100 / (206 + 100) = 100/306 = 0,3268 = 32,68%

Looking at the ratio is the sum of those over 100 which is never a good sign for percentage points; In fact, the sum of them is 101.43%. The supplement 1.43% represents the theoretical waiting for the sports booklet or generally called a tiny (and generally shortened by weight) which is the% amount charged by the sports book for its services. Given that the sports book applies equal action on both sides, it will then receive 1.43% of the total number of bets placed, but since they are unlikely to be equal in most bets, it is only a theoretical pause.

As the winning ratio includes elements of more powerful, we need to remove it to end with actual, rather than required, winning percentages and this will give us a negative line; This is done by dividing each claim of winning percentage by the sum of both winning percentages.

For the New York Yankees, the Real Chances of Working:

0.6875 / 101.43 = 0.6778 = 67.78%

The New York Yankees is the real chance of winning:

0.3268 / 101.43 = 0.3222 = 32.22%

Now we can transform two real working possibilities into a negative line.

For actual job opportunities equal to or higher than 0.50 or 50% relative to the percentage – the formula (where FV is equivalent to the tensile probability of the team) for the Yankees line is:

-100 / (1 / FV) -1) = -100 / ((1 / 0.6778) -1) = -210.4

For the actual working event, less than 0.50 – or 50% in percentages – the formula (where UD is equivalent to the tens of values ​​below) for Royals line is:

(1 / UD) – 1) * 100 = ((1 / 0.3222) – 1) * 100 = +210.4

Since Vig has been removed from the lines, the lines are identical in absolute terms.

This example above is where there is a clear favorite (with negative probabilities) and clear subdivision (with positive probabilities). However, in cases where two items are simply supported by the market or, in general, the bet that uses punctual spread, the calculation is slightly different. In this case, you can calculate the probability and real probability of using the New York Yankees example of calculating the indirect and actual likelihood of working.

Simply knowing how to figure out the negative odds is not going to make you an attractive bettor but you can use these chances to help you work; One way to do this is to create a model that is more accurate than the starting line of the sportsbook.

Suppose you shape the game tomorrow between Yankees and Royals and the lines are -160 / + 150 respectively, and you shape the game with a straight line -170 / + 170. Obviously, the bottom line is not a good bet where you get only a price at +150 a game predicts that they should get +170. However, the price is -160 more attractive as the line is better than you've modeled. The line at -170 you predict conversions in winning percentage of 62.96% compared to actual line -160 which gives 61.54% – this means taking Yankees at a price of -160 gives you 1.42% edge.

When you bet with a positive edge (based on a line you bet not the final, considering you bet on effective markets) you will work on long-term sports betting. If you bet with a negative edge, like a roulette game at your casino, you must be lifelike.

Source by Steve Marino

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *