Sports betting can be very profitable if you know the secrets that "smart" gamblers use to earn a living. One of the biggest secrets that smart money makers use is to know when NOT to bet.
Here is a good example. I analyzed West Virginia vs Louisville game, and found out that West Virginia had the edge of the game. But I also realized that there were a lot of random and unpredictable factors, and recommended that my clients were not betting on this game. Here is my analysis I released before the game:
West Virginia vs Louisville
This game has all the signs of being one of the best games of the year and both teams enter the game 7-0. It was number 3 in west jersey vs. # 5 ranked Louisville, both with high-score offs and stingy defense. The game last year was classical and West Virginia came back from being great in the fourth quarter to work overtime.
So what does the game look like this year?
If this game was played in a neutral field, West Virginia would probably be 4-6 favorite. Since the game is in Louisville, the WVU is a 1-point game. Let's see if this makes sense …
West Virginia is on an interpreted roll. They have not lost since October 1, 2005, leaving 14-0 where they lost to Virginia Tech. In the last two seasons they are 13-5 ATS too. They are also 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a whole and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 ROAD games.
These are some very impressive numbers that deflect the WVU for the game tonight. In addition, the bonus is that the WVU is getting 1 point. This may not seem as much, but in close correspondence like this, this additional point may be divided between push and loss.
But what about Louisville?
Louisville's position is almost as good as WVU-except when it comes to Louisville that covers the point. In his last 10 games, Louisville is only 4-6 ATS. It is said, Louisville is still 7-3 ATS in his last 10 home games.
And if you happen to be a WVU, here's a terrible state … Louisville has not lost home since December 18, 2003! In this current run, Louisville is on average 49.4 points on home game, but on average only 15.7 points at home play. If you have not done the math, it means from the last home loss they have on average beat their opponents by 34 points per game.
What's more impressive, the average line in these games has only been 21 points. That means Louisville has eaten an average of 13 points on home game since 2003.
Wow … how can you counter it?
Here is …
Most of these numbers were built in the period of 2005. During this period, 2006, Louisville has been almost good but great. They have recently played since they have only scored 28, 23, 24 points. And this game was not against Ohio St Louis. Egypt michigan. They were against Cincinnati, Syracuse, and Kansas St. Louis.
The conclusion is that this is still near a game to call. But what I'm looking for is West Virginia's defense to bear the day. If Cincinnati, Syracuse and Kansas St. Louis. can everyone have Louisville under 30 points, there's no reason to think that WVU can not keep them to the minimum until mid 20 years. My honest tip is to shut down this game and not bet at all. There are better games this weekend with more clear advantages.
The game in this game was Louisville 44, West Virginia 34. Lousiville won because West Virginia had 6 fumbles and allowed Lousiville to return point for TD. As a result, the West Virginia edge was not so big that they could still work after making so many mistakes. By not betting this game, people seriously made sports betting save money that they can put into better use in the upcoming games.