Soccer Betting is a series of articles that describe well-known and well-used statistical methods that will help the soccer player make an informed bet. Each technology has its own advantages and disadvantages, and using them in isolation will improve the chances of winning. However, they will prove invaluable in your battle with the literature. In each article, we will describe in detail how a particular method works and give you enough information to go ahead and create your own predictions. We will also give you information on where you can already find websites that use this technology in creating weekly football bet predictions.
The statistical methods described in this article should help you find a better decision about the game or games you are playing on.
In this article we will describe the Footyforest method. The Footy Forecast method was originally developed for the English football pool and tries to eliminate those games that will not be drawn so you get a shorter list of games you can choose from 8th of 11. This method was introduced in the world in 1999 on the original footyforecast website (now 1X2Monster.com). This method is similar to the simple sequence of methods described in our other articles in this order.
Here are the basic rules …
For each team are the following: 1. Finish the total number of points obtained for the last N games. 2. Work out the maximum number of possible points for the last N games. 3. Replace the total number of points obtained with the maximum available and multiply by 100. 4. Calculate the predictive value. In (1) and (2) above, N games could be all home games for locals and all games away aside. Alternately, N could be the last N game, including all home and sport games for teams. Predictions are calculated like this …
HOMEPOINTS = number of points for locals from last N games
AWAYPOINTS = number of points for teams from last N games
HOMEVAL = (HOMEPOINTS / (POINTSFORWIN * 100 * 19659002 ] AWAYVAL = (AWAYPOINTS / (POINTSFORWIN * N)) * 100
FORECAST = (HOMEVAL + (100 – AWAYVAL)) / 2
To calculate possible passing matches On the Footyforecast method, the value is based on the following. .. 1. Predictions 50 = Drawing 2. Values between 50 and 100 give an increased chance of working at home close to 100. 3. Values between 50 and 0 give increased potential to work away near 0. There are some variables to consider, for example, the number of games to use and whether to use all games or just home for home and just aside to name but two. You may want to experiment with these values. By organizing the actual performance that is on versus the forecast, you can create two goals, one to work away and one for home wins, all values between these thresholds are quite draws. All matches outside these thresholds will be less likely to draw. For example, a value of 40 or less wins away and the value of 60 or more for home work. This would mean that any games falling between 41 and 59 can be deducted. What this method does, with a careful setting of the user is to eliminate many non-dragging games giving you a short list to choose from. This method is best used as the English swimming pool is used.
Here is an example …
The data shown are the points received for each game in four recent games, of course you can choose more games to build your accounts. West Ham H4 = 3 (oldest game) H3 = 1 H2 = 1 H1 = 0 (newest game) Leeds Utd A4 = 1 (oldest game) A3 = 3 A2 = 0 A1 = 3 only away games next to … FFPHome = ((+ 1 + 1 + 0) / 12) * 100 = 42 FFPAway = ((1 + 3 + 0 + 3) / 12) 59 FFPForcast = (42 + 100-59)) / 2 = 42 If the threshold ours are 40 and 60 there is a strain in the future drawing area and the bottom end means that if there is no tie, it is likely that another cap would be away. This can be interpreted as an X2 forecast, ie. draw or work away, as some books will take as a bet.
Now you're turning …
Of course you can choose to use different values to those shown above and by experimenting you might get better value to use. You can also choose to use all home and away games played by each team in your calculations instead of just home games for locals and away games for the team. You may choose to have different thresholds than those shown above. You may also find it useful to vertical actual performance against the Footyforecast method predictions to see how many actual drawings fall away work, drawing and home work forecast areas.
If you have the necessary skills, you could go away and build your own spreadsheet of data or even write software to record results and fittings and use the Footyforecast method with your data. Or if you're lazy like me, you could get free software that already does it for you. 1X2Monster and Footy Forecast have been providing this type of facility since 1999. There are seven different statistical methods used to determine the outcome of each game played in each league and a comprehensive list of how each method is performed. Regardless of how each tip made in its sense, the 1X2Monster Division is also in the league tables on how each league game has played successfully to see the success of games. The league charts of predictive performance are produced for home forecast predictions, draw predictions, away work forecasts and for total predictions and are invaluable tools for football points when deciding where to target their European football bet prediction.
Here is a list of all the articles in this series …
Soccer bet – How to succeed in soccer betting – The Rateform Method Soccer Betting – The Footyforest Method Soccer Betting – The Win Draw Tap Method Soccer Betting – The Simple Sequence Method Soccer Betting – The Score Prediction Method Soccer Betting – The Superiority Method