Soccer experts offer you betting tips, the media publish the latest news about opponent groups and their key players, players support hundreds of betting tours. But when you finally put your big bet on a certain favorite, it's time to start praying. Unfortunately, the world of football bet is quite unpredictable. There are thousands of factors that play against us. How can we score our weight loss? The only way to do it is by using money management plans. This article discusses methods and methods of betting monetary management and provides a statistical comparison of their performance based on betting cards and matches in the top European divisions.
The most common betting methods in our days are: Martingale, Row of Numbers and Kelly criteria. Although the first two require no previous information, Kelly requires a punter to know the odds of winning.
Before the performance of the analysis is displayed, it is necessary to declare the above methods:
– Martingale trend means doubling stack after loss and back back stack after victory. This trend is the most popular day and promises positive profits, but requires a lot of investment in cash.
– Row of numbers means arranging a series of constant profits. In terms of bet, points calculates every object so that he can make the expected profit. If he loses, he should increase the next stack so that the win will return both the money already lost and the expected profit for the lost games. This policy is less aggressive than Martingale but still dangerous.
– Kelly criterion: mathematically proven to be the best policy in the long run. However, it needs to know the odds of winning. The stakes are calculated in proportion to the size of your funds and in accordance with the relationship between the odds of winning and the bet. When probability and likelihood are high stacks are set and vice versa.
Data and Methods
To evaluate the performance of each policy, we identified the mortgages made by bookmakers for the top European league. Imagine that bookmakers are punters who place an item on favorite with a minimum bet probability. One can easily evaluate the odds of winning by dividing the average number of home / draw / results with the total number of games over the period.
The leagues and results are taken from four European top leagues that play in the 2008/2009 season: English Premier, French Ligue 1, German Bundesliga 1 and the Spanish Primera League.
– The results show that the Kelly benchmark is the best monetary policy in three with an average profit of + 5% compared to + 1% (Row) and + 1.2% Martingale).
– The most profitable was the French Ligue 1 with a profit of + 22% (Kelly), + 9% (Row) and + 10% (Martingale).
– Low profitability was the English Premiership -10% (Kelly)), -9% (Row) and -8% (Martingale).