In his book "Betting to Work", Professor Williams wrote: "If it were the golden year to bet, then it's." He was quite right. In today's world of football bets, we enjoy the services of bookmakers, online betting tips and media news. But there are still two important questions that every punter needs to answer before he places his item: What is a favorite and what bet to put. Online betting resources like betting tips sites, team analysis done by experts and media news help you choose the game favorite and even evaluate the chances of working in no time. However, consider your profit at the end of the season, you find them, at least disappointed. Why? The reason is clear: bad money management.
This article describes the studies that were conducted to evaluate the optimal parameters for monetary management plans. The study is based on a comparison of the statistics of the top European football clubs that play in 2008/09 and 2009/10.
To present the results of the study, some definitions are required.
- "Value bet" is a measure of discrepancy between punters & bookmakers & # 39; predict the upcoming match. Each output has a special value.
- The value of a bet reflects only the value of potentially profitable circumstances. For example, if the probability of winning is 50%, only results with probability are higher than 2 counted values. The formula is as follows: probability x chances of winning. If the value is greater than 1, the bet is considered "value bet".
- The chances of working at home / drawing / work away are the estimated average frequency of their appearance over the period.
- Kelly heading defines the most advantageous role that the punter should put on favorites.
- Based on the value of each outcome, the profit is calculated from the fact that the premise emphasizes in accordance with Kelly's policy. If the bet is negative, the player does not play. The profit is calculated using bookmakers & # 39; average bet probability.
- An optimal value bet is a value bet that brings maximum profits.
- Data from ten top and ten upper divisions from the following European countries were identified: Austria, England, The Netherlands, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Scotland, Spain and Turkey.
The average profit of football is calculated for the value between 1.01 and 2. The best bet is 1.38 and is, on average, 12% of the top European countries in football. However, it was preferable that the value of the wager for the upper division was 1.5, resulting in average earnings of 19%. This difference means that the punter must have greater confidence when betting on the upper league, but when betting on the top league. The profit is higher because bookmakers & # 39; The predictions are worse, leading to an attractive bet similar to the punters.