When you bet against Tesla and Elon Musk, you better bet little and that's just what I'm doing. I'm an elder buyer with more than forty years in this racket. In the past two years, I have resisted shortening of this stock because of Elon Musk's fears and his success. Since Elon came from South Africa with virtually nothing, his career has been one of the most stunning victories. He started as a founder of Zip2 and sold out for 22 million US dollars. He then became Paypall's partner and paid $ 165 million. In a hurry, he became a partner of SpaceX, Solarcity and Tesla. Solarcity is now the largest manufacturer of solar systems. If I was asked to vote for America's largest employer, I would elect Elon Musk.
Why am I betting against Teslas the highest creation? I'm betting it because the numbers are nuts and I'm not the only hard investor to come to this conclusion.
In the past three years, Tesla has been one of the largest stocks of the stock market. In 2014, the shorts were taken out and shot when Tesla started in price and the shorts shrouded their position. In spite of this slaughter, the short term is still a very large number of about 25% of Tesla's total fleet. Why do the shorts keep short of this stock despite being killed? That's because they are looking at the numbers, which are very terrible. Tesla now sells for $ 267 share and contrary to popular belief, it has never earned a profit. In its last quarterly financial statements, a loss of $ 62 million or fifty cents share was reported when accounting rules (generally accepted accountants) were used. These are the only numbers recognized by the SEC. The hysterical gained $ 16 million profit and revenue 11 cents stake was deceived non-GAAP figures. Why SEC allows companies to disclose fantasy not accounting figures in their income are beyond me than they do. What's even worse is that so-called professional investors continue to cite these fraudulent figures on the TV as they were valid.
Tesla is viewed as an unpredictable company designed to revolutionize the automotive industry. Tesla needs stunning performance performance to justify current prices. It is disturbing that it now produces about 35,000 of highly talented cars a year and sells them an average cost of about $ 100,000 each and it still can not get a profit. It has already announced that it is not expected to earn a profit in 2014 using official financial statements.
The question of $ 64,000 is how many green vandalists are out there who are willing and more important to pay 100,000 kr. For an electric car with very real field limits. The jealous say hundreds of thousands. I do not think so. Signs are starting to appear as Tesla is struggling to find 35,000 buyers a year. Buyers who can afford to pay $ 100,000 for a car do not grow on the trees. Where are 35,000+ yearly buyers next year and the year after it comes from? What eventually struck me was repeated statements by Tesla's proud owners, who are no more than religious believers that hundreds of thousands of panting new buyers out there. Buyers who would like to pay 100,000 US dollars so that they can drive spam every time they put on fuel because Tesla can increase from 0-30. I do not know what that means. I know I would not pay the dime extra for this original performance. If these are the best arguments that may arise with them, they have no argument.
My Honda Accord costs $ 22,500 and gives me all the speed changes I want or need.
Elon Musk is a river boat. His entire career since he came to Iceland has been one year after another. This is a boy who is not happy without rolling the dice. Tesla was not risky enough for him, so he upped ante and built a supercharger net with free fuel for life to a wild applause. Everyone seems to expect slam-dunk and it's profitable. What if it is not?
Then he bet on the ranch. The giant is a bet on the ranch. It's giant gambling for companies that have never won profits and bleed red ink. It will almost be profitable from the first day. What if it is not?
Betting on the ranch on the lantern was not enough for our boy. He decided he was not yet taking enough risks. Then he bet on the ranch for the second time on a guarantee proposal that can only be described as insane. No car company is said to offer a guarantee system that is slightly related to it. Tesla offers eight years of responsibility for both the train and batteries and the responsibility for the infinity of the mileage. There is also a three-year warranty on imports of 50%.
Long-term effects of aging on Tesla are unknown. Nobody knows how the battery and the drive are going to be executed in the third year. Leave years six, seven and eight. The excuse for this warranty is that since the car does not have a combustion engine, nothing serious can go wrong. How anyone can believe this is beyond me. Edmunds has refused to recommend the car because too many items have gone wrong with his test car. This is not good. If Tesla Sedan is not older, the responsibility question alone will crush the company as a bug.
The gambling is the term gambler who continues to bet on the ranch. They are called bridges because they continue to bet the ranch until they lose everything. After that there is nothing left for them to do but jump off the bridge.
I said that when you bet against Elon Musk you better bet little and I bet little. My bet is very modest seven $ 80 sets that expire in January 2016. After all, if anyone can deduct this is Elon Musk but I do not think so. Tesla is a price for perfection and perfection is not going to happen. Too many risks must go perfectly for Tesla to maintain its current original price and make it grow.